Pitch Alert: Justin Steele's Recent Starts Look Different

I used a new tool called Pitch Alert to see if Justin Steele’s stuff or mechanics have recently changed.

Pitch Alert uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a statistical method that quickly reveals patterns from thousands to millions of data points. By applying this method to all of Steele’s Statcast data, I can easily spot if any recent starts stand out.

Here’s what I found: Steele’s recent starts are noticeably different. His release point has shifted, and his pitches are moving through space differently—not just in terms of break or speed, but overall. The graph below highlights this shift. The red oval marks his most recent starts, with arrows showing how changes in his release point are “pushing” these starts away from his typical ones (shown in blue).

This graph tells us something is different—an alert—but it doesn’t show the details. Let’s dive into how his release point has changed.

Steele’s release point is now closer to first base, which could be due to his stance on the rubber or a change in his mechanics. Since his release point is also slightly lower, it seems more likely to be a mechanical adjustment.

This shift didn’t happen in 2023. Last year, Steele’s release point was steady, with more overlap between starts. He did show a minor change in velocity towards the back-end of 2023, but it was subtle. This year, things are different.

So, what’s going on? It’s hard to say for sure, and it might not be a big deal. It could be a temporary change or just randomness. But it’s worth asking why—after all, wouldn’t players and coaches want to know if pitches are suddenly looking different?