Happy Monday! I hope you’re taking some well-deserved time off this Labor Day. But if you’re working, don’t worry—you’re not alone, I’m right there with you! We’ll power through it together.

Now, let’s dive into the Cubs’ recent run. They’ve scored 99 runs in their last 10 games and have won 6 in a row—this isn’t just their best stretch this year, it’s their highest-scoring 10-game run since the 1930s.

Here’s how they’ve racked up those 99 runs. I’ll use ↓, ↑, or ↔ to show the direction each hitter’s performance is trending. The black vertical line marks 10 days ago to highlight the trend.

Expected run production (xwOBA)

• ↑: Everyone!

• Highlight: The entire team has been trending upwards and is over .375. Granted, you might see a slight pink dip in PCA’s trend there, but his xwOBA was near .450 and he is still hanging north of .400.

Exit Velocity (hit speed)

• ↑: Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes, Pete Crow-Armstrong

• ↔: Dansby Swanson, Miguel Amaya,

• ↓: Miguel Amaya, Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki

• Highlight: We are seeing signs of Isaac Paredes emerging from his early Cubs career funk. His bat exit velocity has never been higher all season.

Swing Length

• ↑: Michael Busch

• ↔: Miguel Amaya, Nico Hoerner, Pete CrowArmstrong, Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki

• ↓: Isaac Paredes

• Highlight: Michael Busch’s swing length has been trending back upwards. This could represent greater swing conviction.

Bat Speed (swing speed)

• ↑: Miguel Amaya, Michael Busch

• ↔: Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner

• ↓: Isaac Paredes, Seiya Suzuki

• Highlight: Michael Busch’s bat speed is also rising, which makes sense because his swing length is rising. To emphasize, this could be a sign of greater swing conviction, and perhaps this means Busch is becoming more confident in swing decisions and therefore results might follow.

Whiffs (swinging strike rate)

• ↑: Dansby Swanson, Isaac Paredes, Seiya Suzuki

• ↔:Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson

• ↓: Miguel Amaya, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner

• Highlight: After a little bit of an uptick in whiffs, Nico Hoerner is starting to go back down.

Last Week’s Cubs Graphs Post Highlight

Last week, I posted about Dansby Swanson’s recent success against four-seamers, which, which you can read below:

CHGO Cubs Weekly Recap

Corey and I talked about how Craig Counsell could use the roster and pitching staff going into a September playoff chase.

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Early Struggles with the Four-Seamer

Dansby Swanson’s 2024 season got off to a rocky start because he wasn’t hitting four-seam fastballs with the authority we’ve come to expect.

Early in the season, he was getting tied up by those heaters, particularly in the lower-in portion of the strike zone. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) against four-seamers was stuck below .300 going into mid-June—a stark contrast to the shortstop who slugged this pitch in 2023.

Dansby’s average exit velocity against low-and-in fastballs was between 100-105 MPH in 2023, compared to 95-100 MPH early in the season.

The Turnaround

Fast forward to the last month, and it’s like Swanson found his swing again. His xwOBA has surged, climbing to over .450 on his last 25 balls in play. What’s changed? He’s back to crushing those low-and-in fastballs.

The exit velocity tells the story: where he was previously hitting low-and-in fastballs in the 90-95 MPH range, he’s now consistently hitting them at 100-105 MPH—right where he was last year.

Currently, Dansby’s exit velocity against four-seamers is over 95 MPH on average, his best stretch of the season, and well above his aveage from last season.

Takeaway

After a rocky start, Dansby’s back to punishing pitchers in the lower-in part of the zone, just like he did in 2023.

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Share Cubs Graphs by Brendan Miller

Welcome to the first Monday Cubs Graph Weekly Recap! Each Monday, you’ll get a quick rundown of the past week’s Cubs events and key player trends.

I’ll share graphs highlighting the most relevant trends with ↓, ↑, or ↔ indicating the direction. The black vertical line marks 10 days ago to show trend direction. These posts aim to be informative yet easy to digest. If they’re not, or if you have suggestions for future updates, please let me know—this is an experiment.

Last week, the offense showed positive momentum, led by Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Miguel Amaya. While many players are trending up in expected run production and launch angle, Swanson’s dip in exit velocity and Bellinger’s swing mechanics are areas to watch.

Expected run production (xwOBA)

• ↑: Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya, Cody Bellinger

• ↔: Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, Michael Busch, Dansby Swanson

• Highlight: PCA, Amaya, and Happ have been trending upwards with xwOBA’s over .400 over their last 30 balls put in play.

Exit Velocity (hit speed)

• ↑: Ian Happ, Miguel Amaya

• ↔: Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner

• ↓: Dansby Swanson, Pete Crow-Armstrong

• Highlight: Swanson saw the biggest dip in exit velocity. Happ is hitting the hardest. Despite a slight drop, PCA is still outpacing Cody Bellinger in exit velocity.​

  Launch Angle

  

• ↑: Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cody Bellinger, Miguel Amaya

• ↔: Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner

• ↓: Dansby Swanson

• Highlight: Almost everyone on the Cubs is hitting more fly balls, except for Swanson. Suzuki is hitting more fly balls than at any other point this season.

Swing Length

• ↑: Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson

• ↔: Miguel Amaya, Nico Hoerner, Pete CrowArmstrong, Ian Happ, Michael Busch

• ↓: Seiya Suzuki

• Highlight: Bellinger and Swanson have much longer swing lengths compared to the rest of the team, with Swanson’s swing trending sharply upwards. Meanwhile, Happ, who’s been hitting the ball hardest, has the shortest swing—a powerful combination.

Bat Speed (swing speed)

• ↑: Miguel Amaya

• ↔: Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson

• ↓: Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner

• Highlight: Bellinger has the longest swing and the slowest speed—a combination that might not be ideal. Amaya has had the fastest swing on the team recently, showcasing his talent. PCA’s bat speed has decreased, possibly indicating a focus on bat control, which has been effective given his recent results.

Whiffs (swinging strike rate)

• ↑: Nico Hoerner

• ↔:Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson

• ↓: Pete Crow-Armstrong

• Highlight: Wow! Check out PCA’s dramatic dip in swinging strike rate—down from around 20% in August to under 10% now, putting him in line with Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger.

Last Week’s Cubs Graphs Post Highlight

Last week, I used a tool called Pitch DNA to find Jack Neely’s look-alike. I was surprised by the results, which were driven due to his release point and ‘tight’ pitch shapes. Check out the post below.

Cubs Graphs by Brendan Miller

Jack Neely: Decoding the Cubs’ New Reliever with Pitch DNA

Ever feel overwhelmed by all the data out there when evaluating pitchers? It’s like you need a PhD just to figure out what makes one guy stand out from another. That’s why I created Pitch DNA—a tool that cuts through the noise to show how unique a pitcher is, why he’s unique, and who he resembles…

Read more

2 years ago · Brendan Miller

CHGO Cubs Weekly Recap

Corey and I talked about many of these graphs and much more in this week’s CHGO Cubs Weekly Recap episode, which you can watch below.

Stay tuned for more insights in next week’s recap! If you don’t mind, since I’m just starting out with these posts, I’d appreciate it if you could share them. This way, I can get more feedback and make these posts as efficient and useful as possible.

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Ever feel overwhelmed by all the data out there when evaluating pitchers? It’s like you need a PhD just to figure out what makes one guy stand out from another. That’s why I created Pitch DNA—a tool that cuts through the noise to show how unique a pitcher is, why he’s unique, and who he resembles.

Let’s talk about Jack Neely, the Cubs’ new reliever. Neely’s slider is unique. The reason? His release point. At 6’8,” he’s already towering over the mound, but Pitch DNA uncovered something surprising—Neely’s closest comparisons aren’t other extremely tall pitchers. Instead, he shares traits with Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Derek Law, Ross Stripling, and Adam Mazur. Despite his height, Neely gets lower to the ground at release.

Now, here’s the “too long, didn’t read” version of what Pitch DNA shows: each point on the graph is a pitcher. The closer the points are, the more similar they are. The further they are from the middle, the more unique. The arrows show why the points are placed in their location. It’s like finding similar genes—hence the name Pitch DNA.

Out of all these comparisons, Neely’s slider is probably most like Derek Law’s. Both pitchers throw sliders with more drop and less cut than most MLB pitchers—a combo that’s tough on both lefties and righties.

While these pitchers have similarities, they’re not identical copies. For instance, Ryan Helsley’s slider may look similar to Neely’s, but he throws it nearly 2 MPH faster. Pitch DNA helps highlight these subtle differences, giving us a deeper understanding of what makes each pitcher unique.

Pitch DNA suggests Jack Neely can learn from Derek Law because he has a 2.85 ERA this year. Figuring out how Law succeeds could give Neely some valuable insights as he refines his own game.

Overall, Pitch DNA tells us Neely’s slider significantly resembles many successful relievers, such as Derek Law’s. These two are similar because both sliders drop more than a typical one with tight,minimal cut. And despite Neely's 6' 8" height, he shares release point with shorter pitchers.

Pete Crow-Armstrong showed off his lightning speed on Friday night. In his first career inside-the-park home run, he raced around the bases in just 14.08 seconds. This is the fastest time ever recorded by a National League player for an inside-the-park homer and second only to Byron Buxton’s 13.85-second sprint seven years ago.

But how does Pete’s speed stack up against the rest of the league?

Baseball Savant says Pete’s 3.74-second sprint from home to first makes him the second-fastest runner in MLB, just 0.02 seconds slower than Elly De La Cruz.

When it comes to raw speed, Pete’s max velocity of 30.0 MPH ranks third in the league, just behind De La Cruz (30.1 MPH) and Bobby Witt Jr. (30.4 MPH). To put that in perspective, Pete is faster than nearly 530 other qualified runners in MLB.

Compared to his teammates, the next fastest player from home to first is Cody Bellinger and Nico Hoerner, both clocking in at 3.94 seconds. A difference of 0.2 seconds might not sound like much, but when you visualize their race side-by-side, it’s a noticeable gap.

Pete Crow-Armstrong’s speed is more than impressive—it’s a game-changing asset that sets him apart from the rest of the league.

I used a new tool called Pitch Alert to see if Justin Steele’s stuff or mechanics have recently changed.

Pitch Alert uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a statistical method that quickly reveals patterns from thousands to millions of data points. By applying this method to all of Steele’s Statcast data, I can easily spot if any recent starts stand out.

Here’s what I found: Steele’s recent starts are noticeably different. His release point has shifted, and his pitches are moving through space differently—not just in terms of break or speed, but overall. The graph below highlights this shift. The red oval marks his most recent starts, with arrows showing how changes in his release point are “pushing” these starts away from his typical ones (shown in blue).

This graph tells us something is different—an alert—but it doesn’t show the details. Let’s dive into how his release point has changed.

Steele’s release point is now closer to first base, which could be due to his stance on the rubber or a change in his mechanics. Since his release point is also slightly lower, it seems more likely to be a mechanical adjustment.

This shift didn’t happen in 2023. Last year, Steele’s release point was steady, with more overlap between starts. He did show a minor change in velocity towards the back-end of 2023, but it was subtle. This year, things are different.

So, what’s going on? It’s hard to say for sure, and it might not be a big deal. It could be a temporary change or just randomness. But it’s worth asking why—after all, wouldn’t players and coaches want to know if pitches are suddenly looking different?

August has been a breakout month for Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has led all Cubs batters with a remarkable 150 wRC+. His sudden offensive surge has everyone asking two key questions: What exactly changed, and is this newfound success sustainable?

What did PCA change?

To understand PCA’s transformation, we need to look at the adjustments he made to his batting mechanics. A slow-motion comparison between his first home run of the season and his most recent one reveals some crucial changes. He’s introduced a new leg kick, altered his bat angle from a vertical 90 degrees to a more diagonal 45 degrees before the pitch, and brought his hands closer to his ear. These seemingly small tweaks have made a big difference.

What was the effect of PCA’s changes?

Since making these changes about a month ago, PCA has entered the best stretch of his career. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) has steadily risen, even surpassing .400 in the last two weeks. But it’s not just about hitting the ball harder—he’s also swinging and missing less. Remarkably, PCA is now making more contact in the majors than he did in AAA. The MLB average for swinging strikes is around 11%, but PCA has managed to reduce his rate to under 10% throughout August.

Why are PCA’s changes meaningful?

August isn’t just a blip on the radar; it offers a meaningful sample size. In baseball, 50-100 plate appearances are generally considered reliable for evaluating a hitter’s contact profile. The fact that PCA’s adjustments have led to immediate and significant improvements within this range suggests these changes are meaningful and fruitful.

What should should fans watch going forward?

Pete Crow-Armstrong’s adjustments—adding a leg kick, lowering his bat angle, and bringing his hands closer to his ear—have clearly paid off in the short term. As we watch him continue to develop, the key question is whether these new adjustments will allow him to keep making contact more than the average hitter.

Every Monday, I publish posts with concise graphs that highlight the latest trends for the Chicago Cubs.

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My goal is simple: to keep you updated on the team’s key happenings with easy-to-follow graphs and a quick read in just a few minutes.

What You Can Expect

You can expect my posts to break down complex data into visuals that are both informative and accessible. With a background in data science, I focus on player performance, pitching analysis, and overall team progress.

Why Follow Cubs Graphs?

1. Weekly Updates: Every Monday, you’ll get fresh insights into how the Cubs are performing.

2. Quick and Digestible: My writing and visualizations are designed to be clear and to the point, so you can get the information you need in just a few minutes.

3. Tailored for All Audiences: Whether you're a hardcore Cubs fan, a casual observer, or an analyst, my work is meant to be engaging and easy to follow.

Special Features

Here are three key analysis tools you’ll often see in my posts:

1. Pitch DNA: Discover pitchers with similar StatCast profiles, helping you understand player comparisons in a glance.

2. Pitch Alert: Identify when a pitcher’s performance deviates from their norm, spotting trends that might otherwise be missed.

3. Pitch Simulator: Visualize pitch types with animations based on StatCast metrics, giving you a dynamic look at how different pitches behave compared to league average or other pitchers.

Conclusion

Cubs Graphs is here to keep you informed about the nuance of the Chicago Cubs in a way that’s easy and quick to read. With each post, you’ll gain valuable insights into the team’s performance without needing to spend hours sifting through data. My writing is meant to be read before your first cup of coffee is finished or before Pete Crow-Armstrong quickly steals a base!

So, stay tuned every Monday for your weekly dose of Cubs trends!

See you next Monday with the latest Cubs insights!

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